Bobby Witt Jr. is Proof You Should Always Bet on the Tools

You don’t have to look back particularly far to remember a time when Bobby Witt Jr. was among the most exciting topics in baseball. Entering the 2022 season, Witt (for the record, I will never be referring to his father, Bobby Witt Sr., who was also a Major Leaguer, at any point here) was seen as a consensus top-three prospect in the sport. Most outlets had him mixed in with Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez as the biggest names set to make their professional debuts, with multiple major publications listing Witt as the most promising of the three.

What further elevated the excitement of Witt’s impending debut was the dire state of the Kansas City Royals in the preceding years. Witt was seen not only as a future franchise player but also a beacon of light that could shine for one of the bleakest franchises in all of professional sports. While all top prospects have to grapple with the expectations of their high rankings, Witt had the added pressure of being seen as the only watchable aspect of perhaps the worst team in all of baseball.

Unfortunately for Bobby and the Royals, Witt’s start at the game’s highest level was, to be polite, inauspicious. He managed only a modest .254/.294/.428 slash-line, good for just a 99 wRC+. His Chase Rate ranked in the 16th percentile and his 5.0% BB Rate was worse than 90% of qualified hitters.

While these offensive stats alone may leave room for optimism for the 22-year-old (being an essentially league-average hitter at such a young age is certainly a good sign), his defense was among the worst in baseball. Despite his projections as a solid shortstop from his days in the minors, he completely failed to deliver on those expectations. He posted -9 Outs Above Average in his time at short, as well as another -3 over at third base. That puts him in the first percentile of fielders, per BaseballSavant, meaning he was literally as bad as possible.

Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of Witt’s rookie season, as well as least fair, was his inability to improve his teams record. While Adley’s and Julio’s arrivals each accompanied astronomic jumps in their teams’ fortunes, the 2022 Royals finished with a 65-97 record, nine games worse than they’d been the year before. It’s ridiculous to pin much, if any, of the blame for such a poor season on Witt alone, but it still added to the perception that his rookie season was well below what was expected of him.

The result of Witt’s not living up to the lofty expectations he’d been given was that he was not seen by nearly as many as the future star he once was. Instead of the new face of Royals’ baseball, Witt’s perception instead became more of a flawed prospect. Maybe the promise was still there, but, to many, it felt unlikely he’d ever reach the heights people had anticipated prior to his debut.

What these people tended to miss, though, was Witt still had managed to display all of the tools that had led to his high ranking in the first place. While the results weren’t exactly what was hoped, Witt still hit the ball harder than most of the league, and his Max Exit Velo (a good tool to measure the quality of contact a player is capable of) was in the 93rd percentile. His ability to make contact was also impressive for a player his age, as his K% and Whiff% were both only just below league average. While he had a long way to go in terms of his plate discipline, he did at least show he could hit the ball hard and make contact at a good clip, which are great signs for a still-developing player.

His hitting wasn’t the only thing that looked to improve, though. Even as he graded out as one of the worst fielders in all of baseball, Witt showed he clearly had the tools to become much better than that. His arm strength was well above the league average, and his sprint speed was among the best in all of baseball. While he clearly needed to make strides in his glove work, he still proved he had the physical capabilities to handle baseball’s hardest position.

So far, 2023 has proved that these underlying tools can be extremely important to consider. As of August 8th, Witt is slashing .269/.309/.478, an improvement in every single category. He’s also already matched his homerun total from the previous season (20) and passed his stolen base mark (32). While he finished last year as a tick below average per wRC+, this year he finds himself solidly above with a score of 110.

Even more importantly, his defense has undergone a complete 180. After posting a miserable -11 Outs Above Average last year, he’s improved to 13 OAA this season, which is tied with Dansby Swanson as the best in baseball. While partly this just proves how clunky single-season fielding metrics can be, it also points to why understanding a player’s physical profile is just as important as past results in forecasting future success.

Best of all, everything under the hood has improved for Bobby as well. He’s making more contact at better quality than he did his rookie season. While his results have taken a jump, he may still have more to tap into, as he’s underperforming his expected stats based on his batted ball data.

All of this goes to show that first impressions shouldn’t always last. Maybe Witt’s first season in MLB was disappointing, but writing him off despite all of the physical gifts he displayed should never have happened. Despite the negative attention he received, it appears the Royals may have gotten their future star after all.