MLB's Top Ten Third Basemen Heading Into 2021

Truly, we are in the Golden Age of third basemen. There are currently 17 third basemen in the National Baseball Hall of Fame (18 if you count Adrian Beltre, whose entrance into Cooperstown is as guaranteed as Khris Davis’ batting average being .247). There is a legitimate argument that there are as many as five or six third basemen currently playing that could eventually be inducted, meaning that in 20 years a quarter of the Hall’s hot corner may be playing right now.

While this congregation of talent is great for the quality of play, it makes ranking them extremely difficult. For example, Gio Urshela, the first player off of this list, was so good in 2020 that he likely would rank in the top five in almost several other positions.

Still, I decided to embark on this suicide mission. Without further ado, here are my rankings for the third basemen I think will be the best in 2021:

10. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

In 2019, Devers was a top prospect whose full potential seemed to finally have been realized. His .311/.361/.555 slash-line pointed at an elite future offensively, while his 13 Outs Above Average put him in the top 3% in baseball. 2020, however, was a completely different story. Devers regressed in essentially every area in the shortened season, as his wRC+ dropped from an outstanding 133 the year before to 109. His fielding took a hit as well, though the validity of any fielding statistics over any 60 game stretch is iffy at best. Still, given his potential and outstanding 2019, it doesn’t seem impossible to say that 2020 was simply an outlier in a year with completely different circumstances than any other.

9. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant was bad in 2020. He ranked in the bottom 20% of the league in Exit Velocity, Hard Hit%, xwOBA, xBa and xSLG. His always spotty fielding was terrible. His actual production was pedestrian, as he only managed a .206/.293/.351 slash-line and four home runs. Injuries played at least a part in Bryant’s struggles, but even before his finger injury in late August he was having trouble. Having a career worst year in 2020 was not an uncommon trend, though, and at only 29 years old, there’s plenty of hope that the former MVP can turn it around.

8. Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins

After a resurgent 2019 season, Donaldson’s injury issues returned in a real way in 2020. The 2015 MVP played in only 28 games last season. While he played well, hitting .222/373/.469 with 6 home runs and a 131 wRC+, it seems very possible that, at 35 years old, his best days are most likely behind him

7. Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

The sun rises in the East. The salmon swim upstream. Justin Turner has a 130 wRC+. Somethings simply never change. While he lacks the ceilings of players ahead of him on this list, his reliability over the last seven seasons has been invaluable to the Dodgers. While he is entering his age 36 season, there is no reason to suggest that Turner can’t continue his amazing run of success at the plate.

6. Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

A few years ago, there was a real argument that Machado could be the best third basemen in baseball. The fact that he’s dropped down to sixth is more a compliment to the talent of the league than a detriment to him. His .304/.370/.580 slash-line in 2020 had him as a dark-horse MVP candidate. His defense seemed to take a step up in 2020 as well. While he may never again be at his 2013 level, his 7 DRS in last year’s short season put him back towards the top of baseball.

5. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros

I am not as sold on Bregman as a lot of other people seem to be. While his production in 2018 and 2019 were undoubtedly elite, his batted ball data remains unimpressive. His ability to drive the ball up into the air towards Minute Maid Park’s infamous Crawford boxes perfectly suites him to the Astros, and his ability to play multiple positions and plus base running are both rare for players on this list. Placing him fifth may be lower than what others have him, but it is hardly an insult when you consider the talent ahead of him.

4. Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

Perhaps the hardest choice I had to make on this list was where to put Arenado. Since coming up in 2015, Arenado has been one of the very best third basemen in baseball. His defense is approaching Brooks Robinson levels of consistent greatness, and prior to 2020 he was considered one of the top offensive players in baseball. Still, a shoulder injury wiped him of his ability to drive the ball last season, and as a result he posted the worst numbers of an otherwise excellent career. The fact that he is still coming off that injury, coupled by his move to a new team in the St. Louis Cardinals, makes me think that he might not quite have the level of success in 2021 that the players ahead of him will.

3. Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

Matt Chapman is an absolute freak of nature at third base. The only season where he has ever finished in worse than the 93rd percentile in Outs Above Average since his rookie year was last season. His combination of athleticism and arm strength have made him have one of the best defensive stretches in the history of the game over the last four years. He can hit too, as his Exit Velocity has ranked in the top 5% of the league over the last three seasons. His Achilles heel has always been strike outs, and his low contact rate really limit his ceiling offensively. Still, back to back 8 fWAR seasons in 2018 and 2019 show how ridiculously good Chapman is, and all signs point to him continuing his reign of success in 2021.

2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

Jose Ramirez may well be the most undervalued player in all of baseball. His extremely poor first half of 2019 seems to have severely damaged the reputation of a player who already had to play behind one of the most enigmatic stars in all of baseball. Exclude that stretch, though, and Ramirez has been one of the absolute best in baseball over the last four seasons. His 5’9, 190 lb. pound frame mean that his ability to drive the ball is less than that of physical specimens like the aforementioned Chapman, but his use of his body and knowledge of launch angles allow him to hit for power that seems impossible for his stature. While his defense is not as good as several of the players around him, he gains a lot of that value back by being by far the best baserunner on this list. Couple that with an ability to play several positions and you have one of the very best players in all of baseball.

1. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels

Anthony Rendon rakes. It’s all he’s done for years. A few years ago, Rendon played the role of the unknown superstar, quietly outperforming one of the faces of baseball, Bryce Harper. Now, a World Series title and a $245 million deal later, Rendon’s status has changed. Last season, Rendon played extremely well despite an injury at the beginning of the season and a slow start that followed. In 2019, though, Rendon put through a Herculean effort. According to Statcast, Rendon rated in the 98th percentile in xBa, xwOBA, and xSLG. His .319/.412/.598 and 34 home runs were good for a 7.0 fWAR. Even his defense shined that year, as he rated in the 83rd percentile in baseball in Outs Above Average. Given his success despite extenuating circumstances in 2020, as well as the absolute absurdity that was his 2019 season, there is no question in my mind that Rendon is the best third basemen in baseball.